While it can be difficult to separate threat assessment distinctly from vulnerability assessment and program assessment due to the considerable overlap between these activities, it is still useful to try to distinguish the difference between them. We will, therefore, devote a section to developing the full details of each of these activities in this course.
The process of identifying and evaluating threats requires information about what is happening and what has happened, and a forward-looking analysis of what this information means for the future. Three useful analytical techniques are historical analysis, pattern analysis and change analysis. We will discuss each one in turn.